IS IT POSSIBLE TO SAVE MONEY FOR  SPENCER BROWN’S DEVELOPMENT?

At the conclusion of the Buffalo Bills 2022 season, it was clear that Josh Allen needed more weapons and more time to throw to them.

In free agency, the Bills added Trent Sherfield and Deonte Harty to their receiving group and signed Connor McGovern to take over at starting guard. Pass catchers Dalton Kincaid, Justin Shorter, and O’Cyrus Torrence were selected by the Bills in the draft to provide even more support for McGovern. The Bills filled voids on the roster with deliberate approach.

But after everything was said and done, right tackle Spencer Brown emerged victorious. It wouldn’t be fair to describe his second year as chaotic because that word suggests that there were ups and downs. In 2022, Brown had everything going for him, but it appears the Bills see something different. Can the enormous third-year tackle be saved by the Bills?

A brief recap of his professional history before we move on to the question. As a rookie in 2021, Brown was 56th in terms of pass-blocking effectiveness among 80 tackles who saw at least 20% of their team’s snaps (a PFF stat that determines pressure allowed per snap with a weighted toward sacks allowed). He also faltered towards the end, giving up six pressures in the Kansas City divisional playoff game that is now legendary for the “13 seconds.”

In 2022, that number plummeted. Despite only appearing in 14 games, Brown placed 69th out of 79 tackles in terms of pass-blocking effectiveness and allowed the eighth most pressures (unfortunately, Brown wasn’t even the worst offensive lineman the Bills had—Rodger Saffold was one of the three

Regardless of how you want to interpret the statistics or the movie, Brown hasn’t done a good job of holding Allen accountable. Whenever the quarterback is forced to run, his right side is most likely under pressure. Watch any play that involves this. On the plus side, Brown has shown to be a reliable run-blocking tackle. He is a player the Bills can use in space when pulling because of his exceptional athleticism, and in 2022, he only received one penalty on run plays.

If I simply replied no, it wouldn’t be much of an article, would it? What are some of the reasons Brown might be able to change it? First, he will work with offensive line coach Aaron Kromer, who is in his second year, for the whole of the offseason, hopefully. Brown missed a significant portion of the 2022 Bills offseason due to back surgery. Brown’s snap total throughout their final two preseason games was just 23.

Second, Brown didn’t spend a lot of time on the field as an offensive tackle before joining the NFL. In high school, Brown played tight end for the eight-man football team. Before missing 2020 due to COVID, he started 33 FCS football games throughout his three seasons as a college player. These talking points are familiar, that much is true. Josh Allen and Dawson Knox were two players that needed three years to develop into effective players since they were players who spent less time on the field than their contemporaries. While comparing individuals at three different positions is certainly unfair, the Bills have benefited in the past when they have allowed players to experience the highs and lows of their growth.

Exist any successful cases that have a similar trajectory to Brown’s? Let me say this up front before I take you too far down this road: just because something has been done doesn’t indicate it will be done again. Compared to tackles who developed into useful players, there are much more examples of players who played terribly early in their careers and went on to play equally poorly.

That being said, let’s examine Kaleb McGary. Brown and McGary have certain similarities. McGary is 6’7 317 and Brown is 6’8 311. Despite not having Brown’s level of athletic talent, McGary had an excellent 9.82 relative athletic score when he graduated from college. McGary, who was drafted in 2019, had a difficult first three seasons. According to PFF, he scored 60 out of 85, 48 out of 78, and 65 out of 86 in pass-blocking efficiency throughout his first three seasons. Over those three years, he performed so poorly that the nFlacos declined his option to play in the fifth year. He made a huge leap to rank 20th in the NFL in pass-blocking efficiency in 2022, which allowed him to sign a contract extension with the Falcons. McGary witnessed what Brown will in 2023.

witnessed him soar to the top of the NFL pass-blocking efficiency rankings, ranking 20th, and secure a contract extension with the Falcons. Similar to how Brown will in 2023, McGary experienced his leap in the game during his second season under a new offensive line coach. McGary was a first-round selection and a 47-game starter in college, unlike Brown.

Does that imply that Brown will be able to jump? No. However, McGary does demonstrate a proof of concept—proof that the qualities may be brought out with the right guidance and a plan tailored to their abilities.

As a backup

What occurs, then, if Brown is not given a raise in his third year? Are the Bills prepared for anything?

Not really, though.

The Bills re-signed veteran David Quessenberry, but in 2022, Quessenberry was just as awful as Brown, with a 95.3 efficiency rating compared to 95.6 for Brown’s nine games played. Although Tommy Doyle missed the majority of 2022 due to an ACL tear, he worked his way into the starting swing position as a rookie. To date, the Bills have not indicated that they view him as a long-term or short-term starter.

Because there isn’t a more promising backup plan, the Bills have a lot of eggs in the “hope Spencer Brown gets better” basket overall. With guys like Allen and Knox, the Bills have had some success relying on their traits; perhaps Brown will be another Bills development

The Bills re-signed veteran David Quessenberry, but in 2022, Quessenberry was just as awful as Brown, with a 95.3 efficiency rating compared to 95.6 for Brown’s nine games played. Although Tommy Doyle missed the majority of 2022 due to an ACL tear, he worked his way into the starting swing position as a rookie. To date, the Bills have not indicated that they view him as a long-term or short-term starter.

Because there isn’t a more promising backup plan, the Bills have a lot of eggs in the “hope Spencer Brown gets better” basket overall. With guys like Allen and Knox, the Bills have had some success relying on their traits; perhaps Brown will be another Bills development