Proposed Nolan Arenado to the Astros trade isn’t nearly as crazy as it sounds
With the strong possibility that Alex Bregman will be playing in a different uniform after the offseason, the Houston Astros are going to have to address their third base situation. Sure, there is definitely a chance that Bregman returns, especially if Jose Altuve has anything to say about it, but Houston coming up with the cash to actually make that happen is far from certain. That could mean the Astros will need to get creative.
Complicating the Astros’ plans is the fact that the third base free agent class this offseason is pretty grim. Eugenio Suarez seemed like an interesting option that would have definitely cost less than Bregman, but it seems very possible that the Diamondbacks will pick up his $15 million club option, considering Jordan Lawlar hasn’t exactly impressed in the big leagues yet.
Other than internal options (more on those in a bit), that leaves Houston with limited options.
However, one recently floated third base option for the Astros that actually makes a certain amount of sense is trading for Nolan Arenado.
The 1st decision the #STLCards need to make this offseason is with Nolan Arenado.
The best move for both parties is probably to go their separate ways. But which teams would take on his contract? And would the Cards prioritize a trade return, or shedding salary in such a move? pic.twitter.com/TFLF4kwuV1An Astros trade for Nolan Arenado could actually work, but there are some obstacles to overcome
Arenado’s résumé as a player is beyond reproach. Aside from being one of the best defensive third basemen of his generation, Arenado is also an eight-time All-Star and has put together multiple MVP-level seasons in his illustrious career. While he does seem to be past his prime, as his .272/.325/.394 line from 2024 would suggest, he is still a very productive player with loads of experience, and one wonders if he could turn back the clock if he wasn’t playing on what has turned into a pretty mediocre Cardinals team.
Another point in Arenado’s favor is his remaining contract. While the total value of his existing deal was pretty eye-popping, he is only due $21 million in 2025 and is due even less the next two seasons ($16 million in 2026 and $15 million in 2027). His luxury tax number could be a bit problematic, but it would certainly be cheaper than Bregman, and the Cardinals might be motivated to get those luxury tax savings as well.
There are some problems here, though. One, Arenado’s production has dipped in recent years and, at 33 years old, there is no guarantee that his second-worst-ever .719 OPS in 2024 is an aberration. Arenado also has a no-trade clause in his contract, so any trade would have to get his thumbs up. However, Arenado is acutely aware that he is entering his twilight years, and given that the Astros are legit contenders, he may want to take advantage of the opportunity for a World Series title.
Ultimately, this comes down to asking price, as the Astros’ farm system is relatively shallow when it comes to talent. If St. Louis is looking to cash in on Arenado’s team control and wants a big package of prospects, Houston probably needs to focus on giving prospects like Brice Matthews an opportunity in 2025, or entertaining a stopgap option.
However, if the Cardinals are just looking to reset their payroll and value those savings highly, Houston dealing for Arenado starts to make a lot more sense.