Florida Football believes its defense is beginning to improve going into Saturday’s game against Kentucky. After being destroyed the first four weeks of the season, the Gators have been more determined and have put on back-to-back outstanding performances since the bye week.
On paper, Florida shouldn’t allow Kentucky to score more than 20 points. However, that does not imply that Florida’s defense had a successful day, even if the Gators succeed.
The game on Saturday has an over/under of 42.5 points. Even though it is an absurdly low number for collegiate football, it still seems like there isn’t much room for the over to hit.
The fact that Kentucky is the epitome of three yards and a cloud of dust in 2024 is a major contributing factor.
Kentucky’s defense only encounters 51 plays a game, which is the fewest in the nation, and their offensively only averages 65 plays per game, ranking 95th in the nation. In terms of points per play, Kentucky’s defense ranks 20th, while its offense ranks 99th. Kentucky is scoring 20 points per game on average against FBS opponents, ranking 104th in the nation, while its defense is only allowing 14 points per game, ranking 9th.
All of these indicators would suggest a team with a strong defense that makes every game a rock fight and an inefficient offense that struggles to sustain drives.
Before thinking that Florida’s defense would simply get the ball back, however, supporters should take note of two other statistics.
In Kentucky, plays are completed in an average of 29.9 seconds. In the nation, that is the eighth slowest time.
The fact that Kentucky punts the ball 0.8 times for each drive that results in a score is possibly the most pertinent statistic of all. In other words, Kentucky is 55th in this category, just a hair behind Georgia, Alabama, Tennessee, and Texas A&M, and more drives result in scores than punts.
The lesson is not to pay attention to the number of points the Gators surrender on Saturday. Pay attention to the proportion of drives that result in points as opposed to punts.