The Padres won 93 games but couldn’t quite surpass the Dodgers in the division or in the NLDS

The Padres cruised to a sweep of the Braves in the wild-card round but lost to the Dodgers in five games in the NLDS. They lost a back-and-forth Game 1 before putting on a show in a raucous Game 2. They went up two games to one with a 6-5 victory at a rocking Petco Park in Game 3, but the Dodgers rallied back for shutout victories in Games 4 and 5.

Overall, Fernando Tatis (1.500 OPS), Jackson Merrill (.833) and Kyle Higashioka (1.062) carried the offense in the postseason, with significant contributions from David Peralta. But Luis Arraez had an awful postseason (.226 average), and Jake Cronenworth (.136) and Xander Bogaerts (.167) weren’t much better. The Padres’ offense finished the postseason by not scoring in 24 consecutive innings.

In the rotation, Dylan Cease was the one who struggled the most, as the Dodgers got to him in Game 1 and Game 4, both Padres losses. Michael King and Yu Darvish were effective, though not always backed by run support, and the bullpen was mostly solid. Losing Joe Musgrove in October hurt and might’ve been the difference in a hard-fought series.

Things that went right

The Padres were a model of perseverance this year, as they were 50-50 after 100 games before rallying to finish tied for the fourth-best record in baseball. The team overcame long-term injuries to its franchise player — Fernando Tatis Jr. appeared in 102 games — and two key starting pitchers to stay in the race until a healthy squad was able to pull away from the competition down the stretch.

On the hitting side, success came via balanced contributions from several Padres. Jurickson Profar was the surprise player, as he was expected to make minimal contributions on a one-year deal but instead led the club in OPS and runs scored. Manny Machado had another solid season, topping the Padres in home runs and RBI. Jackson Merrill exceeded all rookie-year expectations by hitting .292 with 24 homers and a .826 OPS.

The biggest letdowns on the pitching side were injuries rather than performances, as Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove each fell short of 100 innings. The team struggled to replace those innings, as Matt Waldron (26 starts, 4.79 ERA) and Randy Vazquez (20 starts, 4.87 ERA) didn’t accomplish much beyond eating innings.

Offseason plans

Overall, the Padres’ roster is in excellent shape for 2025. The team had a middle-of-the-pack payroll this season and has few shortcomings. Adding a starting pitcher, an outfielder and a catcher would be worthwhile, but there aren’t many glaring holes for this team.

The infield is full of players who are under team control for multiple seasons. As someone who hits for average but offers no power, Luis Arraez is an atypical but effective first baseman. Bogaerts will continue to play second base, while Ha-Seong Kim and Machado will play shortstop and the hot corner, respectively. Jake Cronenworth is a valuable utilityman who can share first base with Arraez and fill in at other positions. The team is unsettled behind the plate, however, after Luis Campusano followed a breakout 2023 by taking a major step backward this season. Campusano will likely be part of a catching tandem in 2025, but he’ll need to be paired with someone reliable.

San Diego is in excellent shape with two of the three outfield spots. Fernando Tatis Jr. has not reached his ceiling since missing all of the 2022 season, but even a slightly disappointing version of Tatis is still a highly effective player. He will play right field, and Merrill will be the center fielder. Profar is heading to free agency, but after his surprising success in 2024, there should be interest from both sides in continuing the relationship.

The rotation returns three key members in Cease, King and Darvish. Although Waldron and Vazquez struggled at times this year, they’re good enough to battle for the final rotation spot. Given that Darvish is 38 years old, Musgrove is set to miss 2025 while recovering from Tommy John surgery and there aren’t any top pitching prospects in San Diego’s minor-league system, it would make sense for the team to acquire a starter through a trade or free agency.

The relief corps can withstand the loss of Tanner Scott to free agency, as the rest of the group is set to return. Suarez will continue to fill the closer’s role, and Jason Adam, Yuki Matsui, Jeremiah Estrada and Adrian Morejon will form the setup crew.

Prospects on the horizon

The Padres entered 2024 with one of baseball’s top-ranked farm systems before jettisoning many of their top prospects in this year’s deals to acquire Cease, Arraez, Adam and Scott. They still have a couple of jewels, but there’s no one in the pipeline who is likely to make a significant contribution next year.

Ethan Salas was considered the best international player in the 2023 signing class. He projects as an outstanding defensive catcher whose plate skills are still a work in progress. Still just 18 years old, Salas needs at least two more minor-league seasons.

The other notable prospect is shortstop Leodalis De Vries, who was arguably the top prospect in the 2024 international signing period. Just 17, De Vries is a true five-tool prospect. Like Salas, he will need at least two more years of minor-league development.

Goals for 2025

Even the Padres’ front office would have to admit that the Dodgers have a stranglehold on the NL West. After all, Los Angeles has won the division in 11 of the past 12 seasons, and San Diego’s most recent NL West crown came back in 2006. For this reason, the first goal for the 2025 Padres should be to make the postseason. Many teams have had deep postseason runs from wild-card spots, including the Padres, who reached the NLCS in 2022.

Surpassing Los Angeles should still be part of the goal and plan for San Diego, but it’ll be difficult to take down a team that has posted a winning percentage of .600 or better in each of the past six seasons.

Fantasy focus

Tatis will lead the charge for San Diego in fantasy circles, with an expected average draft position near the end of Round 1 or early in Round 2. The next Padre to come off the board will be Cease, who will be valued as a low-end ace, followed by Merrill and the ultra-reliable Machado. Those three players will be selected in the range of Round 5.

The remaining Padres will be mid-round picks, with Suarez, Bogaerts and Kim fitting into that category. Darvish will be a boom-or-bust option in the second half of drafts.