It is year three of the Joey McGuire era for the Texas Tech football program. Certainly, both internal and external expectations are being ramped up now that the man in charge has his fingerprints all over every aspect of what’s happening at the corner of University and the Marsha Sharp Freeway.

Some suggest that this is the most important year of Red Raider football in over a decade. That’s because there is an opportunity to step into the power void left by the departures of Oklahoma and Texas and become one of the marquee programs in the reconstituted Big 12.

To do that, though, Tech will have to take a massive step forward from 2023 when the program managed just seven wins. It would seem that nothing short of double-digit wins would get the nation’s attention and put Tech in consideration for a spot in the College Football Playoff.

To understand how rare such a feat would be for the Red Raiders, understand that the program has only improved by three or more wins from one season to the next 16 times in a century of playing football.

Of course, during the past 100 years, few seasons like the 2024 season have come around, seasons in which the Red Raiders have been in the middle of a college football shakeup that has altered the landscape of the sport. Sure, joining the Southwest Conference in 1960 and the Big 12 in 1996 were similar situations but those changes saw the Red Raiders take a massive step up in competition.

This year, many are arguing that with Texas and OU in the SEC, the Big 12 is right for the taking. Of course, few outside of Lubbock are predicting that it will be the Red Raiders who storm their way to the top of the conference this year and earn a College Football Playoff birth.

However, most Red Raiders fans know that this program is most dangerous when it is counted out. So let’s take a look at how this season could play out with our preseason game-by-game predictions.

Texas Tech vs. Abilene Christian (W)

Unlike last season when Tech opened the year with a loss at Wyoming, 2024 sees the Red Raiders begin by hosting their annual bloodletting of an FCS opponent. This year’s victim will be Abilene Christian, a school led by former Texas Tech defensive coordinator Keith Patterson.

Sure, many FCS teams have pulled off upsets of FBS programs in recent years. However, Abilene Christian isn’t exactly a powerhouse program at that level of the sport.

Last year, the Wildcats were just 5-6 overall with two losses to FBS programs (North Texas and Texas A&M) by an average of 21 points. Meanwhile, the Red Raiders haven’t lost to an FCS or Division I-AA program since falling to North Texas in 1988. This year, that streak will continue as the Red Raiders open the season with a comfortable win over ACU.

Texas Tech @ Washington State (W)

It gets far more interesting in week two for the Red Raiders as they travel to Washington State for a nationally televised night game. This matchup will provide an early indication of whether or not McGuire has finally figured out how to get his team to win games away from Lubbock in September and October.

It will be interesting to wind out what the Cougars offer up in this game. They suffered massive defections from last year including standout QB Cam Ward (who transferred to Miami), leading receiver Josh Kelly (who is now a Red Raider), and top pass rushers Brennan Jackson and Ron Stone Jr.

Also, keep in mind that the week after hosting Texas Tech, Washington State will be hosting its in-state rival and former conference mate Washington. Could the Cougars look past the Red Raiders? It is certainly possible as this year’s version of the Apple Cup will be even more emotionally charged than normal.

In the end, Tech has more talent than the Cougars do, especially at quarterback, running back, and receiver. Plus, all of the offseason focus on playing well on the road will pay off and McGuire’s squad will take care of business.